Skip to Content

Local political analysts share their thoughts on presidential race

Remaining Ad Time Ad - 00:00

TUCSON (KVOA) - This presidential election is unlike any other we've seen.

The nation appears to be more divided than ever, we've seen more early votes than ever before, and it's all happening during a pandemic.

Two local political figures say the pandemic may be the number one issue on Tuesday.

"It affects everything," said Tom Volgey, professor of political science at the University of Arizona.

"I think that's accurate," said Mike Hellon, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.

These two political analysts may agree on the importance the pandemic has had on the election, but they don't agree on the presidential polls.

In 2016, most polls showed Hillary Clinton winning easily against Donald Trump.

Volgey says everything changed in the final week before Election Day in 2016 and he believes this year will be different.

"They were not off," Volgey said. "What were off were the same polls in the Midwest and the pollsters have all corrected for the mistakes they were making in those polls."

Hellon said the polls were wrong in 2016 because pollsters undervalue Republican voters and they undervalued President Trump.

"People frankly lie to the pollsters, there are a lot of Trump voters who get a barrage of dissatisfaction from people they know," Hellon said. "If they know they're voting for Trump, so they lie about it."

Hellon points to the Trump rallies that attract thousands of people and the small crowds Biden attracts. Hellon said he believes Trump's base is still 100 percent behind their man.

"His people are going to be there," he said. "If he gets a little bit more of the Hispanic vote than he did last time, little more of the black vote, if his people show up, yea, the pollsters could be wrong again."

Both men agree, it could be a close race which means we may not be able to declare a winner for quite some time.

"You know it could be Wednesday or Thursday, it could be December," said Hellon.

"It could last weeks," Volgey said. "Although my guess is that if in fact some of the states come in the way they're supposed to, according to the polls, the election will be decided way before the end of the night in Arizona."

Both men told News 4 Tucson that we can expect the losing side, whichever side that is, to contest the results.

Author Profile Photo

John Overall

Skip to content