Southern Arizona | Investigating 4 You

What are Tucson’s historical chances of a White Christmas?

TUCSON – Dreaming of a White Christmas? Here’s the historical odds of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

For the Old Pueblo, the yearly odds of a White Christmas aren’t great. They’re also not zero.

Since 1895, there have been 4 occurrences of a White Christmas in Tucson. The last White Christmas in Tucson came in 1987, when 2.6” of snow fell on Tucson.

In any given year, the Old Pueblo has a 3% chance of a White Christmas.

Year in and year out, Southern Arizona’s favored place for a White Christmas is fittingly the White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties. NOAA calculates the White Mountains have a 60% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

For Mount Lemmon, the odds of a White Christmas are just 25%. As expected, the probabilities drop as one heads further south. Mountain ranges like the Santa Ritas, Huachucas and Chiricahuas have a 10% chance each year of at least one inch of snow on the ground.

Jeff Beamish

Jeff Beamish

Jeff Beamish is an award-winning meteorologist at KVOA. You can watch his weekday weather forecasts on Tucson Today & News 4 Tucson at Noon. He has also contributed his weather expertise to The Weather Channel, Washington Post, New York Times, AM 1030 KVOI and the Arizona Daily Star.
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